Experts Predict Little to No East Coast Hurricane Activity This Year

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  • In 2012, a number of disastrous hurricanes – including Superstorm Sandy – made landfall in the Eastern U.S. and wreaked havoc for millions of homeowners and businesses, as well as put property and casualty insurers in a very difficult position. However, last year, there were no major storms of this type. And now, experts likewise predict that it will be another quiet year on this front. That, in turn, could lead to lower premiums in the future, which could be good news for insurance agents looking to drum up additional business going forward.

    Researchers at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, recently announced that they do not expect to see any hurricanes make landfall along the East Coast or Gulf of Mexico this year, and that only about three to six hurricanes will even form in the coming season, which is generally considered to run from June 1 to Nov. 30, according to a report from the Associated Press. That’s either slightly below normal, or right in line with historical averages, depending upon where in the range the actual number falls.

    However, these predictions are based on a number of scenarios created using computer models, and therefore produce more than one scenario, the report said. As such, while no hurricanes making landfall this year is the most likely thing to happen, there could be a second, less-likely scenario in which two hurricanes do so. In that case, one would hit the East Coast, and one would hit somewhere on the coast in the Gulf of Mexico.

    The likelihood of accuracy, and a note of caution
    On the other hand, the same scientists also predicted one hurricane would make landfall in the U.S. last year, and none actually did so, the report said. That was the first time the school’s predictions were ever released. Moreover, though, it should further be noted that these do not take into account the chances that tropical storms, which can also be somewhat damaging – though obviously to a lesser extent than hurricanes – and several of those made landfall as well last year.

    Agents might therefore want to highlight to consumers the fact that in some parts of the country, declining instances of natural disasters over the last few years are starting to have a positive impact on home insurance premiums. That, in turn, might help many Americans who have grown frustrated with the increased rates of the last few years to be a little more satisfied with their coverage.